March 13, 2026 | ES options | Manual fills

Another mondo day, but the tape itself tells the discipline story.

Whole Tape

ES one-minute session path with fill minutes marked in the actual order they landed.

Session Notes

    Cross-Asset Stress Map

    Normalized 5-minute moves. Oil and vol were screaming while ES spent the afternoon going sideways.

    Three Phases

    What You Actually Built

    Each band is a paired structure interval reconstructed from fills. Teal and rust are short credit wings; red and blue are debit structures used inside the fight.

    Matched Round-Trips

    These are the structure pairs that can be matched directly from same-day fills. The account realized PnL is higher because account state includes more than same-day pairing.

    Big Drivers

    Window Structure Mode Realized

    Why This Day Felt Like This

    The fills make more sense when the macro stack is on the table: war disruption, energy shock, sticky inflation, softer demand data, and then a market that stopped displacing anyway.

    TimesFM Replay

    Targeted replay at actual fill minutes, not a synthetic benchmark. Each forecast uses the preceding 512 one-minute ES closes.

    Late fill minute Real 30m Base 30m Best.pt 30m Best 1m 30m

    Fill Ledger

    Time Structure Qty Cash flow ES spot Strike distance

    Sources